Task Substitution and Uplift
Summary: We describe three different definitions of the productivity impact of AI (AKA uplift), and show there’s reason to expect: \[\text{uplift on old tasks} \leq \text{uplift in value} \leq \text{uplift on new tasks}\] Three Measures of Uplift One complication in measuring AI’s effect on productivity is that it has different effects on different tasks, and this causes people to change how they allocate their time between tasks. This makes it more difficult to talk about the effect of AI on overall productivity. We use “old tasks” to mean the set of tasks you’d do in a typical day before AI is available – yo...
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